This year, a record number of people and equipment will take part in the event: over 30 countries have sent 5,000 servicemen, 32 ships, 40 aircraft, as well as 18 special forces and diving groups.

On the eve of large-scale military exercises in the Black Sea, an incident occurred, which once again witnessed the tense situation in the region.

After the “warning shooting” of the British destroyer Defender by Russian troops, the entire world faced the question of how far Russia was ready to go to prevent NATO from reaching “its” shores.

Suspilne analyzed the major challenges facing the North Atlantic Alliance in the Black Sea region and the place of Ukraine in the Western security strategy.

Record-high Sea Breeze training

This year’s exercises Sea Breeze set a record for the scale of manoeuvres and the number of participants - over 5,000 servicemen from 32 countries arrived on the Ukrainian shores.

Experts are convinced that the scale of the exercises shows NATO’s increased attention to the Black Sea region and its security challenges.

“It is important for NATO to show that the Black Sea is not Russia’s internal sea, as it is trying to prove. However, given the length of the coastline and the capacity of the fleets, this is the sea of ​​NATO countries. The growing scale of training will confirm this thesis”, - Oleksiy Izhak, an expert on international security policy, told Suspilne.

Source: US Navy. Participants in the international Sea Breeze exercise. Infographics

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, NATO’s involvement in initiatives in the Black Sea region has been lower over the last two years, so now that the world has adapted to the coronavirus realities, the Alliance is looking to make up for it.

“Most of the Sea Breeze exercises will take place following NATO plans approved in 2019. NATO’s presence in training declined last year, but it has adapted to the realities of the pandemic, and the increase in the scale of the exercises can be explained by the development of NATO’s strategy and the Alliance’s desire to compensate for its rather low presence last year,” Mykola Beleskov, chief consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies”, - said.

What to expect from the Russian Federation

The increased activity of NATO in the Black Sea during the Sea Breeze exercises cannot fail to attract the attention of the Russians. And these exercises will remind them of the status of the Black Sea.

As the incident with the British warship, which Russian forces allegedly met with a warning shooting in the coastal waters of Crimea, showed, Russia is ready for escalation and further provocations.

The task of the Russians is to prevent the recurrence of the entry of NATO ships into “their” waters. Of course, they understood all the risks of opening fire on NATO ships and therefore refrained.

But, apparently, everything was not as calm as the British expected.

“The question is whether similar incidents will recur in the future. The British succeeded, but the Russians showed a willingness to respond. Provocations during the exercises should be expected. For example, Russians can enter the closed zone by ships, as they did in 2019 because they feel quite confident”, - Mykola Beleskov said.

Source: royalnavy.mod.uk. British warship HMS Defender

Any NATO activity in the Black Sea, along with security benefits, also poses certain risks for Ukraine.

Given Russia’s love of provocation and its significant superiority over Ukraine’s naval forces, Russia will try to “win back” after NATO ships leave the Black Sea.

“There are, of course, risks that the Russians will try to make up for reputational losses later and arrange provocations against Ukraine. But there is no other way to regain control over the annexed areas than through demonstrations and declarations of rights.

Indeed, it is worth “not going too far” and not making Russia’s reaction unpredictable, but demonstrative steps, a demonstration of the naval presence are very important.Persistence - is the only way to change the policy of the Russian Federation”, - Oleksiy Izhak stressed.

Kyiv in the security policy of the Black Sea region

An important question for Ukraine is the role assigned to our country in NATO’s security strategy in the Black Sea - a passive observer or an active player. After all, Ukraine suffers the most from the aggressive actions of the Russian Federation.

“Before the occupation of Crimea, the Black Sea was a territory of peace and cooperation. But later, the region became an arena of confrontation. And NATO is responding to this situation. Whether this response is optimal is an open question, there are probably moments that need to be improved. Ukraine is the country whose security suffers the most from the occupation of Crimea, but we cannot focus solely on the Black Sea. That is why we, as a Black Sea state, are in favor of increasing NATO’s presence and are cooperating with our partners as we make efforts”, - Beleskov said.

Source: Information Agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Marine guard boat. Navy of Ukraine

Experts believe that NATO’s activity in the Black Sea region will increase and, consequently, Ukraine’s role as a stable partner for the Alliance will increase.

“Formally, NATO’s Black Sea Strategy has not yet been formed. It was expected that a similar document would be drafted at the June NATO summit, but this did not happen. However, a security strategy is being developed, and what we see now is part of that strategy. We can say that NATO will declare its rights in the Black Sea more and more insistently”, - Izhak said.

Turkish map

NATO’s position in the Black Sea depends on the political will of Turkey, which not only defends the position that “Black Sea states” should decide Black Sea affairs but also has the largest fleet in the region.

Although Turkey is a full member of NATO, it is not active in supporting NATO’s initiatives in the Black Sea.

“In terms of the presence of the fleet, the Black Sea is not the world’s main water area, but due to the control of the straits, Turkey has a significant influence on the presence of ships of other countries in the region. In addition, Turkey is considering revising the international convention governing the passage of ships through the Black Sea Straits, and this is significant uncertainty for other NATO countries”, - Oleksiy Izhak said.

Bosphorus Strait, Istanbul

Ankara has shown no intention of "putting a spoke in the wheel" of the Americans and the British, but the widespread myth in Ukraine about Turkey as Russia's main counterweight in the region remains far from reality.

"The main nuance is that Turkey is more restrained in its opposition to Russia in the Black Sea than other NATO nations. Yes, it does not block the passage of NATO ships but for now, we cannot say that it will be key in countering Russia. Unlike Ukraine and Romania, Turkey does not feel threatened by Russia and is much more focused on the Mediterranean. Ankara does not block the initiative and does not impede the passage of NATO ships, but remains true to the position that the Black Sea states must solve the problems of the region on their own”, - Mykola Beleskov explained.