Russian troops at the border: bluff or threat of attack

Олеся Вакуленко
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12:20, 01 December
Russian troops at the border: bluff or threat of attack
Image source: УНІАН

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said in an interview with the Military Times that Russia could launch active hostilities against Ukraine in January or early February next year.

According to Budanov, Russia has concentrated over 92,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. The buildup of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine is an attempt by Russia to raise stakes in the international arena.

The risks of an invasion with the onset of winter and stable cold weather only increase. But possible severe frost is not a problem for either the Russian or Ukrainian military.

The transfer of Russian troops to the Ukrainian borders and the role of Crimea were discussed in the “Topic of the Day” with Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”.

Pavlo Lakiychuk noted that the formation of a strike group around Ukraine was discussed 3-4 years ago:

“It is being formed gradually. This is already a strategic set of forces, not intended for certain local tactical operations, but really a group for a large-scale war. It was not formed in one day. Ukrainian intelligence was monitoring the situation. Especially in the last year, when after Russian exercises in occupied Crimea and on our northern borders, the forces that were transferred there under the guise of participating in the exercises remained close to our borders. Our Western partners, relying on their intelligence data, warned us and our allies about a possible Russian attack, then, of course, the United States has the most powerful electronic and space reconnaissance system, here we can trust them".

Regarding the most probable directions of the attack, the specialists of the Center for Global Studies agree with the conclusions of the Ukrainian intelligence. They believe that the most likely direction is the east of Ukraine, where the Russians have the most powerful groups, but the Ukrainian defence forces are not far behind. There are also two other possible directions:

“The northern direction at the junction of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus is such a dangerous direction that opens our largest cities. The auxiliary direction of an attack can be Crimea. There is an army corps of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, but the attack from Crimea is quite difficult because it is like the neck of a bottle: it is difficult to pass troops through it. Therefore, auxiliary tactical airborne strikes in the Odesa direction and the Sea of ​​Azov, in the Mariupol direction, which the Russians practised this year in training, are also possible”.

It is worth recalling that the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, in an interview with the Russian newspaper "AIF" on November 24, said that "at any moment Ukraine could flare up" so millions of Ukrainians will be forced to flee abroad.

Patrushev's deputy, Alexander Grebyonkin, later gave an interview to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. He claims that "the risks of provocations by Ukrainian special services and radical organizations in the Crimean direction and against objects of maritime economic activity and transport crossings in the Azov and Black Seas have allegedly increased".

He also added that "the destructive activities of the Ukrainian authorities regarding the negative information impact on Russian citizens living in Crimea continue".

Regarding the statements of the Russian leadership, the head of security programs of the Center for Global Studies, Pavlo Lakiychuk, said that they have two goals: to show the world Ukraine- as a weak country, and a message for their electorate, preparation for the upcoming actions.

Statements concerning potential provocations in occupied Crimea by the Ukrainian side are related to another reason:

"Most likely, they are connected with the fact that they need to justify the repressive machine in Crimea, which is gaining unprecedented momentum recently. Now there are more than a hundred Crimean prisoners of the Kremlin. The accusations are unbelievable. Those "terrorist attacks", so to speak, turn out to be fabrications.

We must also pay attention to the Sea of ​​Azov, where the Russians are suppressing our economy, the entire eastern direction, by blocking the Kerch Strait. They also need to explain to someone why (they are doing it.- ed.)”.

The expert commented on the information that appears in the occupation media about the creation of new units on the peninsula. These are plans to create three battalions in the south of Crimea with heavy flamethrowers. They plan to do it by 2027.

"In this case, we are talking about a unit of Rosgvardia - this is not part of the Armed Forces, these are internal troops - a punitive system that guards infrastructure facilities, and is also used for repressive operations against the population.

The increase in the Rosgvardia grouping in Crimea is, first of all, an act of intimidation of the Crimean residents. Of course, this is a very bad sign.

From a military point of view, we should pay attention to those things that they articulate less. For example, to form part of the airborne troops in Feodosia. This is an offensive unit; a helicopter regiment has already been created for it in Dzhankoy. These are military preparations that can be the subject of a military invasion in Ukraine”.

The expert commented on the statement of the American congressman, co-chairman of the group of support of Ukraine in the Congress Brian Fitzpatrick that the USA will stand up for Ukraine in case of an attack of the Russian Federation.

He reminded that over the past year and a half, Ukraine's partner states, members of the North Atlantic Alliance, have finally begun to build a structure of Russian deterrence on the Black Seaside. It is developing quite successfully, which irritates the Kremlin.

Pavlo Lakiychuk concluded that the statements made by American, British, German, and French politicians and diplomats indicate that the way it was in 2014 will not happen.