Why did Lukashenko gather in the occupied Crimea?
Alexander Dobrovolsky, an adviser to Belarusian presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, told the Voice of America that Alexander Lukashenko could go for the recognition of occupied Crimea as Russian territory. On November 4, Lukashenko complained that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had paid an illegal visit to occupied Sevastopol, had not taken him to Crimea. In response, the "head" of the occupying government of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said that Lukashenko in Crimea was ready to receive "with great pleasure". Olesya Yakhno, a political scientist, spoke about what Lukashenko's statement shows and how Ukraine will react to such statements.
"In fact, this is a common play on words from the President of Belarus, because a month ago Lukashenko avoided questions about Crimea that were inconvenient for him. Then he explained that only when the last oligarch recognizes Crimea as Russian and comes to our peninsula - then he will also confirm it as Russian territory", - Yakhno said.
The political scientist added that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus quite often uses topics that are important for Russia to benefit from it, acting in line with the propaganda campaign. And the policy of Belarus is fully consistent with Russia, and the further it goes, the more dependent it becomes on the Russian government.
"The rhetoric of the President of Belarus has changed markedly since the election process and after, because on the eve of the election he was afraid of the Kremlin, saying this in every interview. And later, he said, "NATO tanks are on the border," where "Ukraine is a guide to the West's aggression." Therefore, at some stage, those words of Lukashenko, which were previously perceived as a game, can seriously become real", - she said.
Olesya Yakhno added that Alexander Lukashenko's potential visit to the temporarily occupied Crimea could not be considered a recognition of the Russian peninsula, as there must be a legal act in which the state officially declares that it recognizes the affiliation of a territory. According to her, Belarus recognizes Crimea as Russian only if the country completely loses its independence and is under Russian control.
The political scientist also commented on the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border:
"It looks like revenge on the part of Lukashenko for imposing various sanctions from the West, as it is known that Belarusian travel companies advertised on social networks, urging refugees, most of whom are Iraqi citizens, to transit through Belarus to the Baltic states. In addition, the number of flights from Iraq to Minsk was increased. Later, when the number of migrants began to increase and reached Germany, we realized that Russia was involved in creating an element of a hybrid war, namely an artificial migration crisis".
What is known
- On November 4, 2021, at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of Russia and Belarus, Russian President Vladimir Putin and self-proclaimed leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree on deepening the integration of the two countries.
- The Polish Ministry of Defense announced that on November 8, 2021, a column of refugees from the Middle East appeared on the Polish border from Belarus. Under the escort of Belarusian security forces, they tried to break through the border to enter the EU. Migrants set up camp near the Bruzgi-Kuznytsia border post on the Belarusian-Polish border.
