How Russia will use the census and why it is being conducted was discussed in the “Topic of the Day” with the chairperson of the Crimean Tatar People’s Mejlis Refat Chubarov and Oleg Saakyan - a political scientist, co-founder of the National Platform “Dialogue for Peace and Safe Reintegration”.

Refat Chubarov reminded that conducting a Russian “census” in occupied Crimea is illegal. In his opinion, the Russian leadership is trying to solve several problems by such actions:

“First, the number of Crimean Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians will be reflected there. This number will be significantly less than the actual number in the occupied territories. The Russian occupiers have a task that both Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians must be broken, and those who resist must be driven out of Crimea.

Second, according to competent experts, the Russian occupiers have already settled about one million Russian citizens on the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea during the seven years of occupation of Crimea. We see they are in a hurry with this colonization. They are committing a war crime because artificial substitution of the population on ethnic grounds and artificial demographic substitution, in general, is a war crime. To hide the scale of this crime, they will show that the number of newly arrived citizens is also much smaller than they actually are.

Third, to show the world once again that Crimea is part of the Russian Federation. This is one of the many attempts to legalize the occupation of Crimea".

According to Refat Chubarov, the occupiers will try to find collaborators among the Crimean Tatars, who will explain that the census is needed to address infrastructure issues, build schools, kindergartens, and more.

The Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, as in 2014, explains to the people that the census by the occupying power is not conducted to solve people’s problems. This is, first of all, strengthening the Russian occupation of Crimea. The Mejlis urges Crimean residents not to take part in the census.

Usually, a population census is carried out by states to get quantitative information about their own population.

Oleg Saakyan, a political scientist, co-founder of the National Platform “Dialogue for Peace and Safe Reintegration”, noted this in the conversation. But the goal of Russia, in his opinion, is different:

"The population census in the case of the Russian Federation is used not to establish statistics but to create the desired picture and to intimidate the population. The picture is needed both inside and outside. They allegedly create the illusion of the inevitability of those processes that take place outside and inside. This irreversibility and the need for people to mimic when answering these questions - someone will say that he is not a Ukrainian, but a Russian, someone from the Crimean Tatars will declare that they are also Russians - we have already seen all of that during the Soviet era. Thus, they take notes about everyone ... This is not done by demographers, but by special services, and not in the interests of demographics, but primarily of the military and special services". 

According to the political scientist, with the help of the census results, Russia will form a favourable propaganda picture. There should be about 10-15% Ukrainians in it, the number of Russians should exceed 70-75%, and Crimean Tatars - “are generally few”.

In addition, Oleg Saakyan spoke about the demographic substitution on the occupied peninsula:

“Russia has been actively relocating people from its own territory to the territory of Crimea, and Crimeans are being drafted into the Russian army. The military is rotated throughout Russia, and not in the most prosperous regions. Especially those who, until 2014, were in the Ukrainian special services, the Ukrainian army, since their personal files bear the stamp “prone to treason.” Third, this is the displacement of unwanted people to the territory of Ukraine or the territory of another state, and because of this, the percentage of the Ukrainian population on the territory of Crimea is decreasing”.

The political scientist noted that the actions of the Russian Federation violate international humanitarian law and the Geneva Convention, the rules and customs of warfare. And Russia will use the very fact of the census in the future in the international arena: these data will be referred to because there are no others.

He added the data did not have to be recognized for use by scholars or international documents, with the caveat that the census was not recognized. This is used to create the information background and be used later for the internal consumer.

“These data will then be made available to the domestic Russian consumer. Stories that there are so many Russian people in Crimea, respectively, “it was worth it.” Because in Russia more often the question is raised, not only among the opposition but also among the population completely loyal to the current regime: “Why did Russia need that Crimea at all? Of course, they will use such figures, in particular, to show that all this was to protect the Russian population", - Saakyan added.

According to the political scientist, some people will refuse to take part in the survey and can do so.

Although he does not rule out the possibility of intimidation of the population:

“I do not rule out that Russia will now start actively launching, and has already launched, certain rumours through social networks:” everyone will be at their mercy, so we must respond properly. “We have recently departed from the Soviet era. These times, which were 40-50 years ago, returned to Crimea, and sometimes, if we talk about the most active part of the population, the 30s returned for them. There are NKVD methods in Crimea, which have long been forgotten in Ukraine".

Regarding the reaction of the international community, Oleg Saakyan says that one should not expect more reaction than condemnation and non-recognition. Another reaction should have been prepared in advance, and the Crimean Platform could do it.

The political scientist considers Ukraine’s reaction to this census sufficient, but it could have been better. In addition, he spoke about the possible developed algorithm of actions for Ukrainians in the occupation:

“There could be a certain appeal and algorithm of action for Ukrainians in occupation, what they should do in these conditions. For example, to appeal to Ukrainians not to participate, if possible. But if there is a threat to your life or your well-being, then take part and respond as you “should” because they will draw the numbers they need. We need to play, not just watch Russia take its steps".

As the co-founder of the National Platform for Dialogue on Peace and Safe Reintegration added, Ukraine can use the very fact of conducting a census at the diplomatic level, but for political rhetoric or decision-making, the data itself is insignificant.